Adapting to Volatility and Uncertainty
After sheltering in place for more than two months, here is what I’m seeing in the startup landscape: things that would have been slowly eased into over years has been implemented for entire companies overnight. Google and Facebook are planning for staff to work from home through the end of 2020, Twitter will be remote forever, and many companies will likely follow suit. Layoffs, hiring freezes, and salary reductions for senior execs have been common, especially for companies whose revenue and adoption is deeply impacted by the shelter in place orders, though some have taken advantage of the more liquid market for talent.
One of the challenges many companies are facing is how to create remote teamwork that is engaging and effective. One of the most successful formats I’ve seen is a brainstorming session, where the leader sets the stage for the work to be done, splits participants into small team breakout sessions, floats between rooms to answer questions, and returns everyone to the main room, and has someone from each group present resulting ideas at the end. It requires planning, facilitation, and familiarity with online tools, but can be very effective at fostering collaboration & exchange of ideas. I’ll be curious to see what new VR tools emerge that might feel more like sitting around a dining room table working side by side. Berkeley students staged their graduation in Minecraft, travelling to virtual locations to exercise has been holding my attention surprisingly well in Oculus SuperNatural, and Bevy (from the folks who created Startup Grind) is gaining traction in hosting online conferences. Stay tuned, it’s early days still.
Leaders are recognizing that we are living through a time of extreme volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity (VUCA). David Peterson, PhD, Director of Executive Coaching & Leadership at Google, writes about this. To prepare for VUCA, he advises exploring alternative scenarios, thinking like a competitor, making time for reflection, and exposing yourself to thinking different from your own. In a crisis, he suggests clarifying your mission, vision & values, building your organization’s capacity to act decisively and adapt quickly, and regularly reflecting on your learning.
Is rapid change the new normal?
The last few months have required openness to new ideas, ways of working, lines of business, product ideas, more rapid collaboration, and shifting team configurations. Many coaching conversations explore pros and cons of different options, talking about how to assess and mitigate risk. At the moment, the “stay the course” scenarios are often more risky than making dramatic changes - itself a dramatic change.
One of my favorite stories of a ‘change or die” scenario is that of Alinea Group, a three-Michelin star Chicago restaurant run by Nick Kokonas & Chef Grant Achatz. Kokonas, who also runs the Tock platform for restaurant reservations used across 30 countries, used to be a derivatives trader. He says, “I was used to looking at big, big pools of data and looking for patterns, and also it really trains you to think, to see the world as it is, not as you wish it were.” They developed 4 different scenarios for the restaurant in early March, then completely pivoted to a carry-out model by March 20th, after watching reservations on Tock plummeting, and recognizing the threat to their business. They sold 500 carry-out meals of Beef Wellington in the first evening, and are now booked solid at 1,000 meals per night. Tock (a platform for high-end restaurant reservations) also pivoted to TockToGo within 6 days.
This is an example of a leader seeing initial signs of dramatic change coming, weighing different potential scenarios, assessing their strengths and values, and quickly pivoting to something new. Many leaders I have spoken to have made similar dramatic shifts in their business models, staffing, and ways of working over the past two months. They have been strategically engaged, but also accept the need to take care of themselves and assess their own capacity and that of their teams, as they adapt emotionally to new realities, both personally and professionally.
Adapting to volatility & uncertainty
As we head into the third month of the pandemic, leaders are becoming more familiar with VUCA conditions - rather than being surprised, they expect ongoing rapid change.
I see a few themes emerging from conversations this month, in addition to all the normal coaching topics:
Assess Changes & Make Adjustments
Handle Mental Fatigue
Tend to your Team
Assess Changes & Make Adjustments
One of the challenges of leading in a VUCA environment is figuring out how often to revise strategic choices. Too frequently, and you whipsaw back and forth, but too seldom, and you end up missing early indicators that you need to make further changes. Many leaders are settling on a monthly cadence to review strategic decisions (and sometimes OKRs), and a weekly cadence to review metrics and make smaller changes.
In the past week I’ve spoken to leaders who are anticipating making further staff reductions, as well as leaders whose teams are closing new deals after a shift in strategy, and who are considering making a few strategic hires.
Here are some questions you and your team might find useful:
If you shifted strategy, how can you tell if the change was effective? What are the leading & trailing indicators of success or failure, and are they different than before?
If you froze hiring, what would make you greenlight your first hires again? How do you assess the risk of loss of momentum vs the risk of overextending financially?
If you zoom out to 2021 and 2025, how might these decisions look in retrospect?
Handle Mental Fatigue
Some leaders are doing well at re-calibrating to this new environment, both in terms of managing changing priorities, and managing their own emotions and stress. Others are experiencing extreme Zoom fatigue, or have reverted to a go-faster-do-more strategy. Though the initial crisis may have been a sprint, we are in this for the long haul. Consider these questions for yourself, and talk about them with your staff.
How will you structure self-care, time off, and ways of disconnecting?
How do you think of time off and vacation, when travel isn’t likely very soon?
How have the changes in your household affected you? What support do you need?
If your life was like this for a year, what would you need to change to make it work?
If you’re experiencing fatigue by being on endless video calls, what experiments can you try to switch things up? How will you assess what works for you?
The goal is not to force yourself to do something exceptional during shelter in place (for most this is cruel and unrealistic), but rather to reflect on what is working and what is not, and making small adaptive changes.
Tend to Your Team
Now that leaders have responded to the immediate crisis, many are stepping back to assess how effective each member of their team is given the new circumstances. How are people doing in new roles, or with reduced teams (review effects of changes at 30/60/90 days). One leader was grumbling about someone on their team being short tempered, then reflected that he’d lost half his team a month ago, and decided to ask how he was doing with the changes. Many leaders are struggling, trying to hold it together for their work and their families, and judging themselves for not achieving everything as quickly as they could before all this. This time can be especially challenging for high performers who are used to doing everything exceptionally well.
For each person on your team:
How are they doing?
What has changed for them, both personally and professionally?
What support might they need to be successful now?
What feedback would be helpful to them in their current circumstances?
How can you support them in making needed changes & measuring progress together?
What will your team look like in 2021, and how will you get there? Are there any large gaps in experience or skill that you’ll need to close, especially if you anticipate additional funding rounds or significant business growth? Several leaders I work with are beginning to have conversations with people on their teams about hiring above them. Companies who have the flexibility to hire are scooping up great talent.
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Everyone in a current leadership role is getting real world practice in how to deal with VUCA. For most of us, it’s not been easy. The best leaders will emerge more responsive and resilient, and that lesson will serve them well for years to come.